Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
